"Keeping an Eye on Global Investment Trends: Issue No. 46"

 In 2023, global foreign direct investment (FDI) flows reached an estimated $1.37 trillion, marking a slight increase of 3% compared to 2022. This growth defied initial recession concerns, with financial markets performing well throughout the year. However, the positive headline increase was primarily driven by higher values in a few European conduit economies. When excluding these conduits, global FDI flows experienced an 18% decrease.



Within developed countries, FDI in the European Union saw a significant shift from negative $150 billion in 2022 to positive $141 billion, mainly due to substantial fluctuations in Luxembourg and the Netherlands. Disregarding these two countries, inflows to the rest of the EU declined by 23%, with several major recipients experiencing decreases. In other developed countries, FDI flows remained stagnant, showing zero growth in North America and declines in other regions.


Developing countries witnessed a 9% decrease in FDI flows, totaling $841 billion, with most regions experiencing declining or stagnating flows. Developing Asia saw a 12% decrease in FDI, while Africa reported a 1% decline. Latin America and the Caribbean maintained stability, with Central America defying the trend.

International investment project announcements, covering greenfield (primarily industry), project finance (mainly infrastructure), and cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As), generally trended negatively. Higher financing costs in 2023 resulted in a 21% decrease in international project finance deals and a 16% decline in cross-border M&As. Greenfield project announcements saw a 6% decrease in number but a 6% increase in value, indicating signs of recovery, particularly in manufacturing.

Key trends among top FDI recipient economies include:

In developed regions, international investment project announcements showed a universal decrease. M&A values were $280 billion lower than in 2022, directly impacting FDI flows. Project finance deals were $157 billion lower, and lower values of greenfield project announcements are likely to affect 2024 FDI flows.

The United States, the largest FDI recipient, experienced a 3% decrease in FDI inflows in 2023, with a 2% decline in greenfield project numbers and a 5% decrease in project finance deals.

China reported a rare decline in FDI inflows (-6%) but demonstrated growth in new greenfield project announcements (+8%).

ASEAN, typically a driver of FDI growth, reported a 16% decline in FDI. However, the region showcased its attractiveness for manufacturing investment with a 37% increase in greenfield project announcements, particularly in countries like Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Cambodia.

India reported a substantial drop in FDI inflows (-47%), but stable numbers of new project announcements, keeping it in the top 5 global greenfield project destinations.

In West Asia, FDI remained stable (+2%), buoyed by continued robust investment in the United Arab Emirates, witnessing a 28% rise in greenfield announcements. Saudi Arabia also experienced a significant jump of 63% in greenfield numbers.

FDI flows to Africa were nearly flat at an estimated $48 billion (-1%), with greenfield project announcements increasing, notably in Morocco, Kenya, and Nigeria. However, project finance deals dropped by one-third, weakening prospects for infrastructure finance flows.

In Latin America, Brazil reported a 22% decrease in FDI inflows. Greenfield project numbers remained steady, but international project finance experienced a sharp decline, with 40% fewer deals compared to 2022. Mexico, on the other hand, reported increased FDI and a further rise in new greenfield project announcements, solidifying its position among the top global recipients.


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